One of the least understood risks these cooperatives face is currency. Savings held in local currency tend to lose value against the US dollar year after year. The chart below shows how much value the local currency lost against the dollar over a recent nine-year period in several of the economies where cooperatives operate.
Value lost vs. USD, 2016–2025
South Sudanese pound
−98%
Sierra Leonean leone
−72%
Congolese franc
−65%
Malawian kwacha
−59%
Burundian franc
−44%
Malagasy ariary
−29%
Illustrative. Official annual-average rates; figures rounded. Not all currencies behave this way: the CFA franc (used in several countries) is pegged to the euro and has been far more stable, so the effect is strongest for freely floating currencies.
Depreciation like that shown above steadily erodes what members save in local currency, and typically drives up domestic prices at the same time. Holding reserves offshore in a stable hard currency protects that value and can even grow it, and converts into more local currency after a fall, cushioning members exactly when the cost of living has risen most.
We aim to invest conservatively, in low-risk instruments denominated in major currencies, an area where one of us brings decades of professional experience managing financial markets and foreign exchange risk. We also believe the periodic realignment between currencies offers an unusual opportunity for returns that sit outside the normal trade-off between risk and reward.
However, we are clear-eyed about where the real risk lies: not in holding major currencies conservatively, which is well-understood ground, but in the novel element of applying a currency strategy to African cooperative savings. That is the part that most warrants careful scrutiny, and past currency movements are never a guarantee of future ones.